Photo credit: pkdon50. Creative commons license use.
Join me on a quick stroll through what the polls and projectionists are saying about the presidential race today.
Intrade: Obama has 65.8% chance of winning.
If you’re unfamiliar with Intrade and you have a gambling problem, basically, don’t go there. People bet on candidates at Intrade and it’s considered a fairly reliable test of how candidates are doing at the moment since people are laying down their own cash.
Nate Silver: Obama has 77.4% chance of winning. Nate’s taking a lot of heat lately from other pollsters. I THINK they think that he is saying that Obama will win. But that’s not how odds work. Don’t they follow sports at all?
PPP Poll 10/31 [reputed to lean left]: In Wisconsin Obama’s at 51% to Mitt Romney’s 46%
Marquette Poll 10/31 [reputed to lean conservative] In Wisconsin among “likely voters” Obama’s at 51% to Romney’s 43%
The Battleground. Where is that?
You may also like the HuffPo states map.
I really like the unusual blocky layout of the NYTimes map.
I can tell you Wisconsin is a battleground state given the uptick in visits from Bill Clinton, President Obama, and Joe Biden this week. I assume Obama is feeling worried about having WI firmly in hand, and this makes sense given some deficits in the ground game here which I will now mention, because why not and because conservative pollster Scott Rasmussen already let that out, saying “in Ohio, almost all analysts believe the Democrats have a better ground game to get voters to the polls. That’s not the case in Wisconsin”.
* Walker got his “Victory Centers” open early in Wisconsin and kept them humming throughout the recall. In contrast, the Dems left it up to the candidate post-primary [Barrett] to figure out a lot. That created a huge gap in ground action for the Dems between signature submission in January 2012 and late spring. Also the Dems allowed an army of volunteers [United Wisconsin] who knew the turf of all 72 counties to disassemble. Perhaps they assumed the thousands would spring into action under OFA. Not sure. But they were two different animals. The organizational machine of our recall signature collection worked so well _because_ of its guerrilla spirit. Also, Brown County in populous Fox Valley has always been week on homegrown ground game according to sources [Yes. “Sources”. That’s the Politico technique.]
* Dems. still stubbornly repeat their mantra, “Signs don’t vote, people vote” and so they don’t invest in them to the dismay of rural communities (who still do good in some areas to manufacture and print signs at their own expense, such as in Jackson County). I think this disregard can be credited for the teeny tiny letters in the manufactured Obama signs, but I could be reaching there.
Back to Maps
Notice the NYTImes map shows 185 electoral votes solidly for Obama,58 leaning to O., 89 tossup, 26 leaning to Romney, and 180 solidly for Romney.
You’d think that Karl Rove’s info over at the FOX NEWS map would play a little with the numbers. But it plays it safe: 184 states’ electoral votes firmly for Obama and 180 for Romney.
Give me ALLLL the Details!
If you haven’t been watching the battleground states with a keen eye, but would like to, then head straight to GayIthacan’s
College and Battlegrounds Summary from October 29 at DKOS
It’s a bit overwhelming at first, but take a look at the trends – Obama’s gaining, Mitt’s losing. Look at the colors on those battleground states. More blue than pink or red or whatever that other color is he’s using.
Battleground states look pretty good for Obama. That’s the gist of the articles you’ll see if you look around, too.
Here’s a nice one from Enten over at The Guardian: Swing state polling still makes electoral college arithmetic hard for Romney
Here’s one of the outliers that is WAY out there from Lifenews.com, an anti-abortion web site “New polling data confirms Mitt Romney is surging in key battleground states and could be headed not only to an election victory over pro-abortion President Barack Obama but a bigger victory than initially expected.”
Interestingly enough, not everybody agrees on what is a battleground state. There’s a lot of talk that Minnesota is now a battleground state with headlines like A week before election day, is Minnesota now a battleground state? Clinton JUST went there to visit. So hey – battleground! A Carlton College poli.science teacher says yup – just look at the behavior of Romney and Obama and see a 3 point slip in polls in the Gopher State. He says in 2000 and 2004 Gore won MN by only 2.5% and Kerry only got MN with 3.5% of the vote. He says Clinton went to border towns of Minneapolis and Duluth which mean he’ll show up on TV in WI too.
He forgot to mention that Clinton gave coattail energy to Michele Bachmann’s opponent, Jim Graves while he was there. Just the way he and Obama do for Tammy Baldwin here in Wisconsin.
[blip.tv http://blip.tv/play/hrI9g4f2HgI.x?p=1 width=”600″ height=”313″]
You’ll notice it’s a big outlier from other polls. And a reminder folks, with the Gallup, we’re switching now to just the good old national opinion poll, which of course does not decide the election. The electoral college vote in December does that.
But it’s been worrying political junkies a great deal, which I’ve been pretty much ignoring cause whatever – it’s just an outlier.
Mark Blumenthal runs through the details at Huffpo and concludes that “Gallup’s results are very different, at least for now, compared to most of the national polls, just as they were in 2010.”
It comforts me to know that he concludes about what I did even though I’m a schmoe.
What are the conservatives saying?
I’m not just feigning interest at this moment. I’m actually interested. (Am I ill?)
When you get to FOX NEWS’ 2012 elections page, you’ll see the national poll between Obama and Romney prominently displayed at the top of the page. How convenient to use THAT data. They’re not going to make a big deal of the electoral map because that would show you how well Obama is doing.
Craig Gilbert of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, I assume is leaning conservative given the newspaper’s affiliation with the Bradley Foundation and WPRI.
He sees these states as battlegrounders:
Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire and he very recently wrote Battleground states have little in common, except they’re in play
The quite conservative Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports has a different list of tossup states:
Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.
How he thinks this’ll work:
“On election night, the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.”
That was fun. Leave me any comments and such you have about where you go to watch polls or look at maps.