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I spent some time wading through the WPR/St. Norbert poll. You’d think the thing was legitimate. I mean – WPR lends its name to it.
But I can’t get over the fact that this poll says 8% of self-identified Democrats would vote for Walker in November.
No way. A Dem. would sooner get a tooth extracted than cast a vote for Walker.
I advise readers to stick with the March Marquette poll results for the time being:
Question: Vote for Walker or Burke for Governor
2% Would not vote
3% Don’t know
Other reasons why the Marquette is more worthy than the WPR/St. Norberts:
- The Marquette poll calls *registered voters in Wisconsin*. The people polled by WPR/St.Norberts are NOT registered voters. That info. comes from the mouth of Wendy Scattergood of St. Norbert about 1 min. 30 seconds into this WPR interview: “These are not registered voters. It’s just random selection of households – people over 18 in Wisconsin.” So when you see the phrase “likely voters” linked with the WPR/St. Norberts poll, – frankly, the likelihood is not as strong. In 2010 xoff slammed WPR/St. Norbert for this (and other things). A relevant snippet: “Here’s one quick measure of how unreliable those numbers are: According to the poll, 93 per cent of the people interviewed plan to vote in the Republican primary for governor, and all but 1% of them plan to vote in the general election.” Jumping back to the present, of the 401 Wisconsinites called by WPR/St. Norberts for this recent poll, 79% of them said they will “definitely vote” in November. That does not happen in a midterm in this state. Only 52% of the electorate voted in the Fall of 2010.
- Marquette is simply more reliable with a +/- 3.5 % pt margin of error. Contrast that to the WPR/St.Norb. 5% MOE.
- Marquette nailed the recall and it was only 1 point off on the spread between Obama and Romney. (2012 poll, 2012 actual results)
- You can review for yourself the weight, demographics, and geographic distributions of the Marquette poll because Marquette is transparent enough to share that with you. You DO NOT get to review those elements with WPR/St. Norberts.
To hammer the point a wee bit more – because what the heck – here are assessments from a couple of the conservative politeratti:
You can see all the polls on Burke vs. Walker at Real Clear Politics.
You can review the Marquette poll instrument, methodology, topline, and access a crosstabs file HERE.