Walker leads Burke by 3 points according to latest PPP poll

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Reader, before I direct you to this latest PPP poll, I would like to draw your attention to all of the Burke-Walker polls.

Looking at RealClearPolitics polling data, we see that the average of all polls has Walker ahead of Burke by 6.5%.

gubernatorial averages rcp

But note that the WPR/St. Norbert poll is the outlier, showing Walker ahead of Burke by a whopping 16% (I discredit that poll in this post).

If we remove the WPR/St. Norbert poll – – which seems worth our while – – and if we redo the average with the other polls, we come up with Walker at 3% ahead of Burke (Burke 44%/Walker 47%).

Take that for what you will.

I’ll be interested to see if Wisconsin’s media parrots this PPP poll as much as it did the WPR/St. Norbert poll.

From the PPP site:

“PPP’s newest Wisconsin poll finds a close race, with Scott Walker leading his Democratic challenger Mary Burke 48/45. Walker’s 48% is exactly the same as what we had in our September poll of the state, while Burke’s seen a slight uptick in her support from 42% on our previous poll.

Burke’s increased support is likely a function of her name recognition increasing significantly over the last seven months. In September only 39% of voters had an opinion about her but that has spiked to 71% with voters pretty evenly split on her- 36% rate her favorably, 35% unfavorably. Burke’s been able to consolidate Democratic support as she’s become better known with 86% of her party base behind her now compared to 75% on the poll in the fall.

Nevertheless Walker has shown that he will be tough to beat. 50% of voters approve of him to 47% who disapprove and he has the Republican base on complete lockdown with 93% supporting him to only 4% who are for Burke. That puts Burke in a position where she would have to win independents by a good margin to overtake Walker and while she does have a narrow 46/44 advantage with them on this poll that’s not enough.”

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